WYSE Travel Confederation | wysetc.org
International youth travel organisations anticipate the second Trump presidency
WYSE News | January 17, 2025

Following the result of the 2024 presidential election in the United States, WYSE Travel Confederation surveyed the youth, student and educational travel industry for anticipated changes and opinions about how these changes could impact the global business of youth travel1. A similar survey was conducted in 2016 following the US presidential election at that time, so some comparisons are now possible. Here’s what we heard from our global community of travel professionals then and now.

Looking back

In 2016, the majority of survey respondents were fairly negative about business prospects for youth and student travel following the election of Donald Trump. More than 60% thought their business prospects would be ‘worse’ or ‘much worse’ under a Trump presidency. However, 5% of respondents in 2016 envisioned ‘much better’ business prospects. Organisations that both sent and received travellers were less likely to be negative about their business prospects under the first Trump administration. Growth in outbound youth travel from the United States was seen as a potential opportunity, particularly by those dealing in work experience and internships.

Overall business prospects

Respondents in both 2016 and 2024 were asked what they thought the overall prospects would be for their business over the next year given the outcome of the presidential election in the United States. Compared to 2016, respondents in 2024 were less negative about their business prospects for the coming year.

Given the outcome of the 2024 presidential election of the United States, what are the overall prospects for your business over the next year?

2016 election: 49% worse / 16% equal
2024 election: 43% equal / 27% worse

Anticipated changes in business

Changes in any youth travel sector, region, product or programme have knock-on effects for other areas of the youth travel ecosystem. WYSE Travel Confederation has seen in the past that organisations who understand these changes across the industry are well positioned to strategise and plan around them.

In 2016 WYSE Travel Confederation asked youth travel organisations about anticipated changes in business volume for the following year (2017) for both inbound and outbound US travel. Inbound to the US, senders anticipated a 21% drop in demand while receivers expected an 18% drop in demand for 2017. Outbound from the US, senders anticipated a 12% increase in demand while receivers expected an 8% decrease for 2017.

In 2024, the expectations of youth travel organisations regarding changes in demand are roughly the same if not better than in 2016. Inbound to the US, senders anticipate on average a 10% decrease in demand while receivers forecast a 17% decrease for 2025. Outbound from the US, senders and receivers both anticipate on average a 12% increase in demand for 2025.

Negative and positive effects

Though several respondents expressed that it is too early to see or feel the effects of the second Trump presidency, currently 64% believe that the new US president will have a negative impact on the USA’s reputation as an international youth travel destination.

What kind of effect do you think the newly elected president of the United States will have on the reputation of the USA as an international youth travel destination?

The negative effects are seen to revolve around issues of immigration, safety and welcome.

“The growing youth travel market from the global south may feel unsafe traveling to the US due to the perception of it being hostile towards immigrants and black and brown people in particular. The same may be said for LGBTQ+ travellers.”

“The focus on illegal and legal immigration, as well as non-immigrant visa programs, will make the US a less appealing destination.”

“Trump’s rhetoric is likely to cast doubt among prospective participants / parents on whether or not the US is a suitable/welcoming destination.”

“Worried that political divide creates unsafe environment.”

Trump’s proposed tariffs were mentioned by some as cause for concern as they could potentially further increase costs of living, leaving consumers with less discretionary funds for travel.

“…a reduction of numbers arriving from the US I believe will be a result of tariffs and other hard-line economic policies leaving the average US consumer with less in their pocket.”

Some potentially positive effects were envisioned back in 2016, particularly for outbound US youth travel. Positive effects were most likely expected by those dealing in international work experiences and internships. Senders in work experience programmes on average anticipated outbound growth of 42% for 2017. Interestingly, receivers in the work experience programmes expected a 10% drop then. The potential for long-term growth in outbound US youth travel following the election result in 2016 was one of the few positive possible outcomes envisioned by one respondent at the time.

“It’s difficult to see how Donald Trump will have a positive effect on a business sending youth travelers to the US…The only positive could be a long-term increase in US outbound travel for young people.”

Echoes of this prediction are heard in the 2024 survey.

“As an outbound tourism business, we see rates of outbound tourism demand for Gen Z travelers across North America at all-time highs.”

Overall, both those organisations sending and/or receiving outbound youth travellers from the US anticipate around 12% increase in business volume for 2025.

Other potentially positive effects that respondents mentioned in 2024 revolve around consumer demand for trusted agents, global shifts in market demand and renewed competition amongst destinations. The opportunity for new destinations to be considered by international students, particularly those from China, was also noted.

Top business concerns

In 2024, youth travel organisations reported having the same top three business concerns as they did following the 2016 presidential election:

  • Visa regulations
  • Economic uncertainty
  • Political uncertainty

These concerns apply to both the short and long term for youth travel organisations. For the short term there are also concerns around exchange rates, placement availability and pricing. For the longer term, employment as an issue comes into the mix.

“I believe we are headed into a very difficult economic time and that leisure spending will dip. I believe that fewer people will see the USA as a desirable international travel destination and that Americans won’t travel to Europe as regularly and will not have the disposable income to travel on vacations as they do today.”

Looking forward

It is difficult to say if any growth in outbound US youth travel is attributable to the outcomes of Trump’s first presidency. There have been many global developments since that time, including the COVID-19 pandemic. For the coming period, some organisations envision positive possibilities. However, many imagine a picture of rising costs leading to less funds for travel and destinations being perceived as unstable, unsafe and not good value for money.

“Many young people fear the future with such a leader of the US.”

The concerns expressed by respondents to our latest survey are well founded and have a basis in what WYSE Travel Confederation knows about youth travellers globally.

Young people fund international travel with a mix of parental/family contributions, personal income and savings, as well as scholarships. The funding mix is an important and often overlooked aspect of youth travel’s value. While the mix of sources helps to fund trips that are more expensive than you might expect for a young person, strains on parental/family income can impact the contribution towards international educational travel. Furthermore, our New Horizons 5 survey found that outbound US youth travellers were potentially deterred from international travel by issues related to political/social unrest (41%) and personal identity (32%).

The positive possibilities that organisations see also have a basis in what we know about youth and student travel – when times are tough, young people still find ways to travel. Positivity is also rooted in the spirit of the industry and the global community of WYSE Travel Confederation.

“We will need to continue to organize as an industry to fight the negativity impacting our sector.”

As you have experienced yourselves, changes in one country, programme or sector bring challenges, but also opportunities. As the global community for travel professionals specialised in youth and student travel, WYSE Travel Confederation continues to ask questions and analyse the industry’s feedback, actions and achievements for the greater good of young travellers and cultural exchange.

Let us know what you think. Read our youth travel research insights and join the conversation.

1 Methodology note

Following the result of the 2024 presidential election in the United States, WYSE Travel Confederation surveyed youth travel professionals on anticipated changes in the US and opinions on how these changes could impact the global business of youth, student, and educational travel.

The survey was open for two weeks following the US presidential election in November 2024 and attracted a total of 92 responses from 33 different countries. The largest number of respondents were based in the US, followed by Germany and the UK.

Responses came from across the youth travel industry, but those engaged in work and travel, educational exchange programmes were the most frequent. Many respondents are involved with the J-1 Visa Exchange Visitor Program, either as an Agent or a Sponsor, and dealing in the Summer Work & Travel, Intern, Trainee and Camp Counselor and Au Pair programs.

Accommodation providers also made up a sizeable portion of the total responses.

More than 40% of respondents send travellers to the USA. The organisations sending or receiving inbound travellers to the USA dealt mainly with partners and travellers in Europe (54%) and Latin America (37%).